Political Insider: Barack Obama at Israel's 60th Gala

For two days, the Jewish rumor mill in Washington buzzed with talk that Sen. Barack Obama, whose bid for the Democratic presidential nomination now seems all but unstoppable, would show up at the gala Washington celebration marking Israel's 60th anniversary -- joining Vice President Dick Cheney, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a glittery cast of hundreds.

Sure enough, Obama attended the high-profile gathering and touched all the bases: praising Harry Truman for recognizing Israel, talking about "shared values and a shared history" and  bipartisanship, invoking the name of  Theodor Herzl.

Watch the video here:

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Political Insider: New Poll: Good News for Obama, McCain -- Depending on Spin

Spin is everything in politics, which is why competing campaigns can take the same polling data and convincingly use it as proof their candidates are doing better than their opponents.

That was apparent on Wednesday when Gallup released a new snapshot of Jewish voters (read it here),  and both the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) and the Barack Obama campaign sent it out to reporters as if it was unambiguous good news for their side.

The new poll showed Obama doing "better than might be expected among Jewish voters," in the words of the pollsters.

But what, exactly, does that mean? Gallup says it means Obama is "trailing Hillary Clinton only slightly in Jewish Democrats' preferences for the Democratic nomination."

That's good news for the Democratic frontrunner because the assumption from the outset has been that Clinton - with her longstanding connections to the Jewish community, her New York base and her seven years in the Senate - would capture the lion's share of Jewish Democrats.

Perhaps more importantly for Obama, daily tracking polling "finds no recent decline in the percentage of Jewish Democrats favoring Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination," according to Gallup.

Coming after weeks of controversy over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, the Chicago preacher who evokes images of Louis Farrakhan for many Jewish voters, that suggests Obama's "Jewish problem" may not be as deep as Republican spinmeisters claim.

Looking ahead to the general election, the Gallup data shows Obama getting 61 percent against McCain.  That's a solid majority, right?

But that 61 percent isn't particularly good by recent Democratic standards; Sen. John Kerry got 74 percent in 2004.

Thus the enthusiastic press release from the Republican Jewish Coalition.  The poll, the group said, is "another important indicator of the ongoing troubles Barack Obama has with Jewish voters."

The RJC, the release went on, "remains confident that John McCain will continue the trend of the GOP making inroads among Jewish voters."

Indeed, Jewish Republican voting seems on the upswing - unless you take a longer view.  Ronald Reagan won 39 percent of the Jewish vote in 1980, and George H. W. Bush snared 35 percent in 1988, before plunging to 11 percent in 1992.

In fact, the GOP average tally from Jewish voters in presidential contests in the 1970s and 1980s was 34 percent.  Viewed that way, the Republicans seem to be creeping back from some dismal lows in the 1990s and early 2000s.

So: McCain is doing better than recent Republican nominees with the Jews, Obama is doing better than many experts predicted with that same electorate. As usual, the polling data contains something for everybody - except, maybe, Hillary Clinton, whose problem now is mostly Democratic convention delegates, not folks surveyed by Gallup.

But there's only one poll that really counts, and we won't find out how that one goes until November 4.  And the results will be a lot harder to spin.

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Political Insider: UJC Fights for Boost to Emergency Food and Shelter Program

Twenty five years ago, the federal government began a unique partnership with charitable groups to provide emergency food and housing for the nation's neediest.  That program - created in large measure because of the efforts of Mark Talisman, the former Washington director for the Council of Jewish Federations - today faces mounting pressures as the economy sours and more Americans sink into poverty.

So it was fitting that Talisman's successor - now under the banner of the United Jewish Communities (UJC) - is pressing hard to avert cuts to theEmergency Food and Shelter Program (EFSP) proposed by the Bush administration.

"With the current economic situation of the country, organizations are not only reaffirming their support for the program but looking for additional funding," said UJC's William Daroff. 

He said that while there are no "solid numbers" pointing to growing demand for emergency food and shelter services, "food pantries clearly have less food on the shelves than they've had in the past; they are seeing more people come through the doors for utility assistance and rent and mortgage assistance."

The program represents a partnership between the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and a group of prominent charities, including Catholic Charities, the Salvation Army, the National Council of Churches, the Red Cross, the United Way -- and UJC.

While money comes from the federal budget, decisions about where the money actually goes are made locally.  And every local board has a UJC or other Jewish presence.

Currently UJC is leading an effort to secure an additional $50 million to be included in the next homeland security appropriations bill, which counters a cut to the program included in President Bush's budget proposal.

But with Congress once again gridlocked when it comes to spending bills, it is far from clear whether the proposed increase will see the light of day.

This week UJC and the other organizations that work with the program were on Capitol Hill, marking EFSP's 25th year - and urging Congress to increase, not cut, funding for a program that is more critical than ever as the economic slowdown continues.

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Political Insider: Keeping Tabs on Jewish Republicans: Not a Nonpartisan Affair

The Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) may not reflect the voting behavior of a majority of Jewish voters, but it has no problem raising big bucks - and using that money to run aggressive ads attacking the Democrats.

Now a group of young Jewish Democrats says it will set up a new blog to monitor the RJC's "inaccuracies and hypocrisies."

The "Republican Jewish Coalition Watch" will "catalog both accurate statements and misleading remarks" in upcoming RJC ads, and will "attempt to document these statements by referring to non-partisan neutral sources," leaders of the new group said in a statement.

They cite an example: the RJC ran aggressive ads attacking Sen. Joe Lieberman and linking him to Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan when the lawmaker was the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2000, but they praised him in 2006, when Lieberman lost the Democratic primary to challenger Ned Lamont.

But the effort is anything but unpartisan and neutral; it reflects growing fears in Democratic circles that Sen. John McCain could grab the biggest share of Democratic votes since Ronald Reagan's 39 percent in 1980.

Democratic sources say the party will mount an aggressive effort to keep that from happening;  The Republican Jewish Coalition Watch, a project of the Young Democrats of America Jewish Caucus, is one front in that broad effort.

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Political Insider:  McCain And Obama Get Their Bites From The Apple

Jewish outreach operations for both Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama will be busy in New York on Monday, with events planned in Manhattan. But McCain's people got off to a rocky start when they planned their meeting (not a fundraiser, as reported elsewhere) at the Harmonie Club, which has been accused of restricting diversity in its membership. Obama canceled an event there last year because of this, and Mike Bloomberg resigned from the club prior to announcing his mayoral run. An appointee to the MTA recently also resigned from the club under pressure from members of the legislature.

When reporters started calling McCain's camp, the event was promptly switched to the St. Regis Hotel.

Houston businessman Fred Zeidman says he and his Jewish outreach co-chair Rep. Eric Cantor (the only Jewish Republican in the House of Representatives) had "no idea" the club was controversial.

"This was planned by New Yorkers," he said in an interview Friday. "I would think if there was any sensitivity, they might have been sensitive to it. I've eaten at the Harmonie Club, but I had no idea [it was controversial]. I assure you none of us had any inkling about this."

Zeidman said the event was planned by George Klein, a founder of the Republican Jewish Coalition. Klein did not return a message for comment but his secretary pointed out that he wasn't the host of the event.

Odds are Obama's camp won't raise this as an issue since they did the exact same thing last year.

Earlier in the week ABC News' Jake Tapper reported that McCain ousted Dearborn, Mich. Arab-American businessman Ali Jawad from his finance committee after conservative blogger Debbie Schlussel laid out a case that he has ties to Hezbollah. 

The Obama fundraiser will be hosted by Florida Rep. Bob Wexler, who knows his way around these parts as a Queens native. Wexler gained some national prominence last year when his office was the setting of last year's limited-run reality series "The Hill" on the Sundance Channel. The featured speaker is trailblazer Liz Holtzman, former congresswoman, Brooklyn district attorney and city comptroller.

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Political Insider:  Obama's Blue Collar Blues

This week's Jewish Week story on Sen. Barak Obama's problems resulting from his long association with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright (read it here)  naturally put a Jewish spin on things. 

There's little question Wright's reemergence on the national stage, his continued defense of Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan and his harsh rhetoric about America are upsetting even some staunch Jewish Democrats.

But as the story pointed out, Obama faces a much bigger Wright problem: a backlash from white working class voters, the segment where his support among Democratic voters is weakest.

After the story was published a new Pew Research poll (read it here )  offered stark confirmation of that point.

According to Pew, "Obama has lost ground among whites -- especially white working-class voters -- who now prefer Clinton by an even larger margin than they did in late March."

Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead among white voters who never went to college has increased from 10 points in March to 40 points now; her lead among white Democrats earning less than $50,000 a year jumped from 2 to 24 points, the research group noted.

That may not be enough to deny the Illinois lawmaker the Democratic nomination, but it is a troubling sign for the Democrats in a general election race in which race and class are certain to play an even bigger role than they did in the primaries.

But if Clinton does manage to wrest the nomination from Obama, analysts say the party faces the potential of an African American backlash.  Even a modest move by black voters to sit out the November election could be devastating for the Democrats.

"If Hillary Clinton wins the nomination, the Democrats go down the tubes," said Johns Hopkins political scientist Benjamin Ginsberg. "Black Democrats will see this as betrayal; if their turnout drops by even 20 percent, the Democrats are in very deep trouble."

No doubt the Wright  backlash is being driven to a considerable extent by Obama's political opponents in both parties and by the endless media quest for new and sensational stories.

But the results are real -- and a worrisome hint of what's to come when the Republican campaign machine really gets in gear in the fall.

The best strategy for Obama, according to Ginsberg: accept the fact that he will continue to "bleed" from the Wright wound, and look for "transfusions" by changing the subject to issues such as the sagging economy.

That could also help shore up support in the Jewish electorate, where economic angst  is becoming a bigger factor in this year's political races, several analysts said this week.

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Political Insider:   Victory for Hadassah:  Congress Finally Passes Genetic Discrimination Bill

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Political Insider: Obama's Hamas Nod

It seems like a dream press release for the Republicans: Hamas backs Obama.

But evidently it's true. At least in the words of one Hamas spokesman.

"We like Mr. Obama, and we hope that he will win the elections," Ahmed Yousuf, Hamas' top political adviser in the Gaza Strip, told WorldNetDaily and WABC Radio in New York.

"I do believe [Obama] is like John Kennedy, a great man with a great principle. And he has a vision to change America, to [put] it in a position to lead the world community, but not with humiliation and arrogance."

Never mind that Obama has consistently said he supports the current U.S. isolation of Hamas until such time as it recognizes Israel's right to exist and renounces violence. He draws a distinction with his openness to talk to Iran because that is an established state government.

Evidently some in Hamas regard Obama is their best chance of being taken seriously by the new presidential administration.

But Republican John McCain wasted no time making hay of it, sending out a fundraising letter warning that "Barack Obama's foreign policy plans have even won him praise from Hamas leaders" and repeating Yousef's quote.

"We need change in America, but not the kind of change that wins kind words from Hamas, surrenders in Iraq and will hold unconditional talks with Iranian President Ahmadinejad," the letter continues.

One can almost imagine the field day the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) will have with this when they launch their pro-McCain ads. And who can blame them? Before that the best they had was Jimmy Carter's silly Mideast diplomacy jaunt, which has been dismissed by almost every Democrat that matters.

At the same time, the GOP in North Carolina, the next big primary battleground, is running ads exploiting Obama's ties with radical preacher Jeremiah Wright. In that case McCain, in a bid for the high ground, has asked the party not to run the ads, even as Obama's campaign denounces the "politics of association" and recalls his pledge to run a clean campaign.

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Political Insider:  Some Thoughts About Pennsylvania, Obama and Clinton, the Jewish Vote and Exit Poll Tyranny

So now it seems that Sen. Hillary Clinton scored a bigger victory with Jewish voters in Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary than the Jewish Week and other media outlets initially reported.

What happened? Once again, exit polls - the only source for information about how the vote breaks down by race, religion, gender and other factors - had to be "readjusted," which is a polite way of saying the pollsters were wrong.

The new numbers , released late Wednesday, showed a much bigger Clinton victory among Jewish voters - 62 percent instead of the 57 percent reported earlier.

That put her Jewish draw significantly above her overall take with Pennsylvania Democrats. But that may  be a somewhat misleading figure; more on that later.

First, the exit polls: we report on them because we have no choice, but we fear and distrust them.

Jewish Week readers turn to us not just to find out who won and who lost,  but how the Jews voted. And the only source of that information is exit polling.

But more and more, we're finding that the initial results, released shortly after the polls close, are wrong and need to be readjusted- sometimes repeatedly, sometimes with dramatic outcomes.

In California, we reported initially that Clinton won the Jewish vote, but it turned out a few days later that Obama won by a hair.

The Pennsylvania readjustment seemed dramatic - Clinton went up to 62 percent of the Jewish vote, Obama dropped to 38 percent - but that wasn't the whole story.

In fact, Jewish Democrats voted pretty much identically to other white Democrats.  While Obama won an incredible 90 percent of black Democrats, he got only 35 percent of white Democrats. So he actually did marginally better among Jewish Democrats than among the overall Democratic population.

Do the numbers suggest that the campaign of rumors, accusations and outright slurs aimed at Obama, especially in Jewish circles, is having an impact on Jewish voting?  Maybe -- but it's hard to draw any real conclusions from the available data.

Do the Pennsylvania results suggest Obama will have a big Jewish problem if he runs against Sen. John McCain in the general election in November? Possibly - but there's nothing to indicate that the Jews who voted for Clinton wouldn't stick with the Democrats if Obama is their party's nominee.

It could happen, Jewish Democrats concede - which is why they plan the most active Jewish outreach ever for the general election campaign.

Now we know how Pennsylvania Jews voted on Tuesday; what it means is a whole different story.  And the final chapter has yet to be written.

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Political Insider: Kadish Consequences: Fallout from New Israel Spy Case

Tuesday's arrest of Ben-Ami Kadish, an 84-year old retiree from New Jersey, on charges of spying for Israel more than two decades ago leaves more questions than answers - a situation which, naturally, has produced an avalanche of conspiracy theories.

Among them: the charge that the indictment was deliberately timed to prevent the release of convicted spy Jonathan Pollard (and never mind that there isn't a shred of evidence Pollard's release was under discussion at the White House) and that it was timed to erode support for Israel on the eve of a major U.S. peace push -- to soften the Jewish state up for new U.S. pressure.  (Peace effort? Where? Talk about mirages).

Numerous reporters, including Stewart Ain in the Jewish Week (read story here), have asked relevant questions: why now, after all these years? What were government investigators looking for when they stumbled on  Kadish, who was leading an exemplary life in a retirement community? Who talked, and why?

Despite the case's many mysteries, some of its consequences are pretty clear.

The case doesn't threaten a rupture in U.S.-Israel relations, but it doesn't do them any good, and it is a public relations fiasco, reminding people of a long-abandoned spying effort that tarnished Israel's image as an ally.

There is a strange paradox in U.S.-Israeli military cooperation; it is stronger than ever, but there is also a lingering element of suspicion on the U.S. end that can only be fueled by the new/old spy case.

The case seems like proof that those who argued that Israel never really came clean about its Pollard-era spying were right.

Despite being about as stale as a case can be, it will serve as fresh ammunition for those claiming pro-Israel Jews can't be trusted with government secrets.  That was one legacy of the Pollard case; numerous high-level defense and security professionals who happened to be Jewish found themselves treated differently.  Thanks to the bizarre Kadish affair, that's likely to happen again.

The case is one more bad piece of news for Pollard, now in his 23rd year of incarceration. 

While there's no evidence President Bush was at all disposed to review the Pollard case, it would clearly be even more costly for him to do so while the Kadish case is generating headlines.  The new case will reenergize those in the intelligence community who remain vehemently opposed to Pollard's release - a vehemence that derives from a number of factors, including dislike of Israel, exaggerated fears about rampant dual loyalty, concerns that Israel never really owned up to what it did in the 1980s and anger that Pollard and his supporters continue to suggest that what he did was justified by the failure of U.S. authorities to share vital intelligence with Israel.

The controversy probably won't affect the legal proceedings in the long-delayed trial of two former employees of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the pro-Israel lobby, but it could magnify the public opinion fallout from the case.

Nobody has accused the two - Steve Rosen and Keith Weissman - of spying, for Israel or for anybody else, but with the phrase "Israeli spies"  ricocheting across newspaper headlines, the public probably won't make that distinction.

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Political Insider:  10 Indicators for the Jewish Presidential Vote

Every four years, Jewish Republicans work their media contacts to generate stories about how the Jewish vote is about to change in their favor, only to be disappointed in November.
 

But that doesn't mean the Jewish vote can't change, or won't.  Jewish Democrats obviously worry about erosion, since they spend more time and money than ever on outreach to the Jewish electorate.
 

Those arguments are upon us once again in 2008.
 

Jewish Republicans say that no matter who the Democratic nominee is, Sen. John McCain will do better than any GOP nominee since Ronald Reagan hit 39 percent in 1980.
 

But Jewish Democrats point out that we heard similar predictions in 2004, when the GOP touted George W. Bush as the "best pro-Israel president ever."  But when the votes were counted, Bush received only 24-25 percent of the Jewish vote - better than four years earlier, but much lower than he got from other white, middle-class voter groups.
 

So how can we tell if the Jewish vote really is in flux this year? Here are a few signs to look for as we look at the relatively small segment of Jewish swing voters.

1.  The situation in the Middle East.

If things are generally quiet in the region, it will favor the Democratic nominee - or at least defuse the Israel issue somewhat as a draw for the GOP.

But if terrorism worsens, rocket attacks increase or the simmering conflict with Hezbollah or Hamas turns into open warfare, McCain could get a boost. Jewish voters tend to get more militant about pro-Israel issues when Israel seems more threatened than usual; when things are going okay, most focus on domestic issues, where the Democrats have a big edge.

2. Will the Democrats play to the center?

To win, the Democratic nominee must run a strongly centrist campaign and not play to the Democratic left. Jewish voters remain strongly Democratic and generally liberal, but they tend to react in fear if a candidate seems too cozy with the anti-Israel left.

Both Democratic contenders seem to be hewing to the center. But will they continue? How will they react to GOP efforts to portray them as secret leftists?

3.  Will the Republicans play to the center?

The conventional wisdom is that Republican candidates do best running to the right in the primaries and steering back to the center in the general election.

But John McCain can't afford to ignore a restive religious right that has been very cool to his candidacy. If millions of Christian conservatives stay home in November, he could face disaster.

If McCain keeps religious right leaders at arm's length, his Jewish numbers could go up; if he makes that faction a top target because he is fearful they and their supporters will sit out the election, his Jewish gains could be minimal to nonexistent.

4. Iraq.

McCain will argue that "winning" in Iraq is vital for Israel's security interests, but it's hard to see how the average Jewish voter -opposed to current Iraq policy - will go for that.

The more the war figures as a major campaign issue, and the more McCain defends Bush administration policy, the worse he is likely to do with Jewish voters who believe the war was a mistake in the first place.

5. Iran

All the candidates say we can't afford to let Iran go nuclear, echoing Jewish public opinion, but it's very unclear how the issue is likely to affect Jewish voting.

If Obama is the nominee, the Republicans will argue that his call for diplomacy is tantamount to appeasement.  If the Iranian threat seems more dire in November, that could work to McCain's advantage with Jewish swing voters.

But banging away on Iran could backfire if McCain's militancy persuades voters that he is likely to launch a new military campaign.

That would cheer Jewish neo-conservatives. But they're not likely to vote for a Democrat, anyway; the average Jewish voter is unlikely to be attracted by a Republican nominee who seems eager to commit to a third war.

6. The economy.

A sour economy always hurts the party that controls the White House. But this year there is also public unhappiness with the Democratic Congress' response.

Jews are like other voters: heavily influenced by pocketbook issues.

If American pocketbooks seem significantly more endangered when November rolls around, McCain's claims of strong national security credentials may seem a lot less important to Jewish voters than his self-proclaimed lack of expertise in economics and worries he would continue the economic policies of the Bush administration.

An improvement in the economy could make it easier for McCain to keep the focus where he wants it with Jewish voters: on terrorism and Israel's security.

7. Judges

Liberal Jewish groups say that eight years of Republican rule have transformed the federal judiciary in a way that will compromise church-state separation, endanger civil and abortion rights and generally undercut the Jewish domestic agenda.

Sen. McCain has promised to appoint Supreme Court Justices in the mold of Antonin Scalia won't be a plus with most Jewish voters. If the Democrats aggressively and effectively exploit that issue, and if McCain talks up his pledge to the party's conservative wing,  it could have an impact in keeping Jewish swing voters on the Democratic side of the ledger.

That's another reason the Republicans want to keep Jews focused on Israel and terrorism; the more that happens, the more domstic issues like the changing federal judiciary get lost in the shuffle.

8. Jeremiah Wright

Sen. Obama's preacher will provide a fat -- and  lucrative -- target for GOP ad agencies; how well Obama responds, if he is the nominee, could have a significant impact on Jewish voting.

The Republicans will demand he repeatedly damn his former spiritual mentor, and not just reject his views, but doing that could prove awkward in an election in which he will need a huge African American turnout to win.

Any sign Obama is equivocating in the face of repeated attacks could tip some Jewish swing voters over to the Republicans.

9. John Hagee

Sen. McCain now says he may have made a mistake in cozying up to the San Antonio megachurch preacher and Christian Zionist leader who has infuriated Catholics and gays.  But he desperately needs the religious right constituency that Hagee influences, so he can't go too far in his rejection.

Pro-Israel leaders increasingly accept Hagee, but his not-one-inch views about Mideast peace efforts, his call for preemptive war with Iran and his apocalyptic rhetoric are unlikely to sell with most Jewish voters. The more Hagee figures into the McCain campaign, the harder it will be for the presumptive nominee to score above President Bush's 2004 tally with Jewish voters; if Hagee fades from view by November, McCain will be in a better position with Jewish voters.

Jewish Democrats will try their best to highlight Hagee's past writings and his controversial statements, but it will be harder because the preacher has been koshered by major pro-Israel leaders.

10. Race

Jews like to talk about how the black-Jewish alliance helped create the civil rights revolution of the 1960s, but there is also a palpable uneasiness about a black community that, according to some, is a primary source of anti-Semitism in this country and whose leaders seem hostile to Israel.

If Obama is the nominee, the GOP will do its best to connect him to black extremists such as Louis Farrakhan; his responses will be scrutinized carefully by some nervous Jewish swing voters.

But if the Republicans or their friends in independent political groups play the race card too blatantly, it could hurt McCain with Jewish voters who remain committed to the basic precepts of the civil rights movement.

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Political Insider: (Mostly Male) Jewish Leaders Meet Democratic Senators

Women are increasingly major players in Jewish communal and political affairs, but you'd never know it by looking at the delegation of machers who met with Democratic senators on Wednesday.

While there were six women among the 25 lawmakers at the table, there was only one woman among 20 Jewish leaders - Nancy Ratzan, the new president of the National Council of Jewish Women (NCJW).

Asked about the striking gender imbalance, Sen. Debbie Stabenow, chair of the Democratic Steering and Outreach Committee, responded with exquisit diplomacy.

"I'm very glad (Ratzan) was there," the lawmaker said. "I'm always interested in having as many women at the table as possible."

The mostly male Jewish leaders discussed a range of issues, from the Iranian threat and Israeli security to mounting efforts by groups such as the Jewish Council for Public Affairs (JCPA) to fight poverty.

High on the list of priorities for some Jewish groups, including Jewish Federations and the United Jewish Communities: the administration's proposed cutbacks in Medicare and Medicaid, which Jewish leaders are urgently pressing the Democratic Congress to block.

"What we heard was not just the agenda of the Jewish community, but the agenda of America, in terms of focusing on those things that lift people up out of poverty, creating opportunity through education and the challenge of energy independence," Stabenow said.

Asked about the new pro-peace process lobby unveiled yesterday, Stabenow responded with the tact of a veteran politician - praising AIPAC, the main pro-Israel lobby, but saying the new J Street lobby and political action committee represent "another important voice. Having another set of voices come to the table is a good thing."

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Political Insider: Pennsylvania Race: A Jewish Yawn?

Jewish pundits continue to write about the potentially big impact of the Jewish vote in next week's Pennsylvania Democratic primary, but you can tell their hearts aren't in it.

The reason: almost nobody expects this latest skirmish in the Democratic war of attrition will settle things between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Polls suggest there hasn't been much movement in recent days. Clinton remains on top - by a modest margin, according to some polls, a slim one according to others.

But in the end, it's clear Obama will come away with almost as many delegates, enough to keep his lead in the all-important race for votes at this summer's convention.

That means the race is increasingly coming down to a battle to win over the hundreds of "superdelegates" who aren't bound by primary results.

Some are arguing that that fight, too, has a Jewish component (what issue doesn't?), but that may be a little silly.

Sure, a disproportionate number of superdeleges are Jewish, since a disproportionate number of Democratic activists are Jewish. 

But while issues such as Israel, Rev. Wright and Louis Farrakhan may play big in primary elections, this fight is really about insider issues: which candidate is seen as having the best chance of winning the White House for the Democrats in November,  who's the best wheeler and dealer.

Sorry, folks, but the race for the Democratic nomination is increasingly lacking in Jewish content - unless you're interested in the longstanding reality that Jews are heavily involved in party affairs.

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Political Insider:  Kippa Politics II: Presidential Edition

I earlier blogged (read it here )  about the fancy knitted yarmulke sported by Sen. John McCain last month during his visit to the Western Wall. Now get ready for the Commander-In-Chief Model.

The Israel chapter of a group called Republicans Abroad (expatriates who vote by absentee ballot) recently gave President Bush a handmade kippa shruga during a Passover program at the White House. The yarmulke is emblazoned with not one but two American flags and the Hebrew title "HaNasi," the president.  They'd like him to wear it during his second visit to Israel in recent months, since last time he appeared in one of those decidedly unpresidential handouts.  "His black satin hotel kippa last month was an embarrassment," said one Jewish Republican.

It was knitted by Shira Gvir, a member of the Republican National Committee and daughter of a former Israeli ambassador to the U.N., Raphael Gvir. Republicans Abroad Israel also claims credit for the McCain kippas, one of which reads in Hebrew "the senator," while another hopeful one reads, "the president," keeping all the bases, well,  covered.

A source who was at the White House Passover ceremony said the president "required a brief explanation of how to position the flags in the front and the name in the back so people could read it."

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Political Insider:  Presidential Portents at ADL Meeting

The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) may be as close as it gets to a group reflecting the activist core of Jewish politics: focused heavily on Israel, worried about anti-Semitism, staunch church-state separationists and civil rights supporters.

So the political buzz at its national leadership meetings in Washington this week may offer some clues about the problems facing the presidential candidates as they seek Jewish votes.

At a presidential surrogates forum yesterday (moderated by this reporter), there were some alarming signs for Sen. Barack Obama, who leads the bitter race for the Democratic nomination.

Obama was represented by Rep. Stephen Cohen (D-Tenn.), who created a stir when he came to the defense of former President Jimmy Carter, who was snubbed by Israel during a visit this week because of his claim Israel practices apartheid, his planned meeting with a top Hamas leader and other sins.

It should be noted that there are plenty of Jews who defend Carter - and on Tuesday the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz ran an editorial stating that Israel owes the former president the "respect reserved for royalty for the rest of his life" for his role in the Camp David accords.

But praising Carter is hardly the thing to do when you're speaking on behalf of Obama, who is trying to convince pro-Israel voters and campaign contributors that he wants nothing to do with the anti-Israel left.

Cohen acknowledged as much when he returned to the subject a little later on and said "I probably make a mistake" in talking positively about the ex-president.

Then there was the Jeremiah Wright controversy, which kept surfacing - in questions, in responses from the other panelists, in the buzz in the hallways.

Polls suggest Obama has largely overcome the controversy with Democrats in general, but a highly unscientific glimpse of the ADL crowd suggests they are far from satisfied.  Almost every time Wright's name came up it was coupled to that of Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan.

And you know about Farrakhan.

Sen. John McCain was represented by former CIA director James Woolsey, who argued that the Bush administration has been too willing to "pressure" Israel and too soft on Iran.  Speaking for Sen. Hillary Clinton was longtime adviser and Democratic activist Ann Lewis, who scored points with the ADL crowd by suggesting her candidate, if elected, will dismantle the Bush administration's extensive faith based initiative.

Interestingly, all three stayed clear of the question of the personal faiths of their champions -- possibily because sitting right up front was ADL leader Abe Foxman, who has been critical of the growing use of religion as fodder in the partisan wars.

ADL is not a perfect mirror of a broader Jewish community that is probably much less focused on Israel, but it probably does reflect the pro-Israel activist segment of the community - which is the target of all three candidates as they seek Jewish votes and money.

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Political Insider: Getting The Most Out of Church-State Breach

With the hourglass quickly draining on the Bush administration, those who have celebrated its take on the First Amendment's wall between church and state are starting to look ahead.

On Monday, the Union of Orthodox Jewish Congregations welcomed a statement by Democrat Barack Obama at the "Compassion Forum" at Messiah College in Pennsylvania that he would continue the president's faith-based initiatives, giving tax dollars to religious organizations to do social work.

"I want to keep the Office of Faith-Based Initiatives open,
but I want to make sure that its mission is clear…the faith-based
initiative should be targeted specifically at the issue of poverty and
how to lift people up," said Obama. "And partnering with faith communities, I think we can achieve that as long as it's within the requirements of our Constitution. We make sure that it's open to everybody."

The OU's Institute for Public Affairs also noted that Obama rival
Hillary Clinton "has been a leading sponsor of legislation designed to bolster the work of faith-based and community charities including the "C.A.R.E. Act." Presumptive GOP nominee Sen. John McCain has also been supportive.

"It is most welcome that the principles of government's equal
treatment of faith-based charities and utilizing them to serve those in need is a matter of commonsense consensus again," said OU's Nathan J. Diament, noting that George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore agreed on the program's worthiness in 2000.

On April 24, the fifth day of Passover, Rabbi David Zwiebel, vice president of legal and governmental affairs for Agudath Israel of America, will lobby for greater government assistance for religious schools when he addresses a White House Summit on inner-city children and nonpublic schools.

According to Agudah, Rabbi Zwiebel will share the American Jewish community's experience with intra-Jewish private programs aimed at providing assistance to families unable to pay tuition at Jewish schools, strengthening building funds and other growth-related needs and maintaining fiscal viability.

"By demonstrating the achievements of even limited private programs, Rabbi Zwiebel will make the case that similar ventures have the potential to bring positive change to the larger American educational landscape." said Agudah spokesman Avi Shafran in a statement.

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Political Insider: Jimmy Carter in Syria: Who Cares?

Jimmy Carter is the gift that keeps on giving for the Republicans, and the elderly ex-president is at it again: now he's apparently going to meet Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal in Syria next week.  So great is Carter's view of his own skills that he probably thinks he can convince Meshaal to endorse Israel's existence, give up the Hamas war with the Palestinian Authority and maybe sit down for a Seder.

Today the Washington Post reported that the State Department  warned the former president against the meeting, saying it would undermine U.S. policy in the region, but that was probably just one more reason Carter will want to have a cup of coffee with Meshaal.

The Post also reported that the delegation will include former Rep. Stephen J. Solarz (D-NY), a Jewish lawmaker who often clashed with pro-Israel forces.

The Carter Center, in a statement, called the trip a "study mission," not an effort at negotiations, and said its purpose is to "provide momentum for current efforts to secure peace in the Middle East."

But since "current efforts" include as a major element isolating Hamas and building up the rival Palestinian Authority, it's hard to see how the former president's involvement is anything but mischievous, even some dovish Jewish leaders believe.

Jewish Republicans responded with blinding speed. The Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) praised Sen. Barack Obama for saying the meeting was a bad idea, but called on the Democratic contender to "reject Carter's presumptive super delegate vote."

All praise aside, the RJC was also making sure the radioactive "Carter" name remains connected to Obama.

Jewish Democrats find talking about Carter distasteful, but in private they come back with this response: does anybody really listen to what Jimmy Carter says, aside from a left wing fringe that doesn't seem to be growing or influencing party doctrine?  He was repudiated by voters after one term, after all, and has spent the decades since making himself more and more irrelevant to the party and the public.

But Carter's 2006 book about Israeli "apartheid" sold a lot of copies, and he remains a popular speaker on the college circuit, the Republicans counter. And why is he a super delegate?

Democrats come back with this: if Carter's so darned influential, why does just about every Democratic candidate for president or Congress regard him as toxic, and why has the Democratic Party moved steadily away from his views of the Middle East?  The pro-Israel consensus in the party is stronger than ever, they say, so fie on Carter.

Most of the country has forgotten the brief Carter administration malaise, but in the narrow world of Jewish partisan warfare, he remains right in the center of things.

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Political Insider:  Local: Will Bloomberg And Silver Go To War?

Key members of the state Assembly insist there was not enough support for the city's congestion pricing plan to pass, and Speaker Sheldon Silver shouldn't bear the blame.

Observers have noted that legislators are loathe to touch a hot-button issue whose impact and level of public support is unclear in an election year.

But editorial pages have been whacking Silver for not scheduling a vote on the bill,  leaving him open to criticism that he let it die, either willfully or passively. It brings to mind the bruising Silver inflicted on Mayor Michael Bloomberg two years ago when he declined to support funding for a West Side stadium, a cornerstone of the city's Olympics bid, after persistent lobbying of Silver by Bloomberg and other officials.

All this has prompted speculation that Bloomberg might have revenge on his mind. If so, the billionaire mayor might be looking at this fall's Democratic primary. Two unknowns are challenging Silver in his Lower East Side district, and fundraising for them, or writing them a huge check himself, would probably be a waste.

But one political operative who knows Bloomberg well has another scenario.

"Margarita Lopez is the best chance of taking out Silver," says the operative, referring to the former Lower East Side councilwoman whom Bloomberg appointed to a top job in the city Housing Authority in 2006. Lopez has battled Silver before and came out on top, defeating Silver's chief of staff, Judy Rapfogel, in her 1997 Council bid.

"Do you think more Jews have moved to the Lower East Side since then?" asks our source.

The operative conceded that such a scenario is unlikely, since it would mean "open war" between Bloomberg and Silver. The mayor would have to give up any other projects that need backing from Silver or the Assembly. Also, Bloomberg, who is not known for playing political hardball, can't be entirely sure Silver was to blame for the congestion plan's defeat.

Silver has close to $3 million in his campaign war chest,  so he probably isn't losing sleep. But Bloomberg can easily raise that much from rich friends. And the New York Observer recently reported speculation that Silver commissioned a poll of constituents to assess own his weaknesses (read the story here). Silver, in that item, did not deny hiring the polling firm.

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Political Insider: Bibi Rep Briefs Presidential Campaigns

If there's any Israeli leader who knows the ins and outs of Washington, it's Zalman Shoval, regarded as one of Israel's most effective ambassadors here during two stints, 1990-1993 and 1998-2000. Shoval is now head of the Likud's Department of Foreign Relations,

This week he was back, briefing the three presidential campaigns on behalf of the man Shoval believes will be the next Prime Minister of Israel: Benjamin Netanyahu.

Shoval's focus: forget about sweeping peace processes and focus instead on joint economic development projects to create jobs and infrastructure.

At a briefing at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, he said it was time to work not for a peace agreement but a "modus vivendi," and that U.S. policy should shift to reflect that.

He also said Israeli security forces are the only thing keeping Mahmoud Abbas in power in the West Bank; without them, he said, Hamas would take over there.

And he had a prediction: a year from now, Bibi will be the Prime Minister of Israel.  Netanyahu, he said, has "the answer but not the solution."  The answer: economic development.

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 Political Insider:   Is Joe Reading The Writing On The Wall?

I last blogged about the possibility of Joe Lieberman getting a second shot at vice president, a prospect he insists he's not pursuing, though his campaigning for presumptive Republican nominee John McCain suggests otherwise.

A new poll commissioned by the Democratic blog DailyKos (read it here )suggests Lieberman, who lost the Democratic nomination in 2006 to Ned Lamont, has reason to look at his options.

In a retake of Research 2000's 2007 poll, the group found Lieberman slipping in popularity among most Connecticut voters.

Lamont, the cable company founder who challenged Lieberman largely because of the senator's support for the Iraq war, would get a whopping 74 percent of Democrats' votes in a new matchup against Lieberman, should he seek re-election on that ballot, according to the poll of 600 likely voters between  March 31 and April 2. That's up slightly from 72 percent last year, while within the poll's four percent margin of error.

Lieberman's support among Democrats, however, slipped from 25 percent last year to 19 percent this year. His support among all voters is at 37 percent, statistically the same as last year's 40 percent.

Independent voters, who put Lieberman back on Capitol Hill, are also deserting him, favoring Lamont by a margin of 53-36 percent, statistically the same as last year's 49-38 results.

Republicans like Lieberman best, though, choosing him over both Lamont and the 2006 GOP nominee, Alan Schlesinger. That result is the only one that shows Lieberman gaining popularity, from 69 percent to 74 percent, while Lamont gets a paltry four percent (down from seven) and Schlesinger only 19 (down from 24).

That Republican appeal could bolster his credentials as a possible McCain running mate even as it damages him among liberals, who argued in 2006 that he was too close to President Bush on foreign policy and national security matters.

But the poll also suggests Lieberman would not necessarily help McCain win Connecticut. A majority of respondents in nearly all age or party groups said the selection would not affect their chances of voting for McCain. The exception is among Republicans, and those voters were about evenly divided between those more likely to vote for McCain (43 percent) and no effect (45 percent) with only 12 percent saying they were less likely to support the ticket.

Lieberman has insisted his plan is to stay in the Senate. And, in fairness to the gentleman from the Nutmeg State, few voters are actually focused this far in advance on an election more than four years off that may or may not include the same players. Were Lamont  not to run, for example, the whole calculus would change.

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Political Insider: New Jersey Rabbi Speaks Out on Iraq

A recent Political Insider blog item reported on the fact that the Union for Reform Judaism (URJ) was the only major Jewish organization to comment on the fifth anniversary of the start of the Iraq war -- and the only major group to stake out a position opposing the administration's current policies in the conflict, reflecting the views of a majority of Jewish voters.

A Reform rabbi in Cherry Hill, NJ wrote to say that at least in his congregation, the milestone -- and the even grimmer fact that over 4000 Americans have now died in the conflict, not to mention uncounted Iraqis -- was a major focus.

Rabbi Barry Schwartz of Congregation M'kor Shalom played a major role in URJ's decision to take a stand against the war more than two years ago.

"I addressed the war from the pulpit last week, with the help of a visual aid I created- a scroll with the name of every American military casualty," Schwartz reported. "Single spaced, the scroll occupies 85 printed pages, 5 feet deep and 17 feet long. I calculated that if I spent 5 seconds reading the name, age, and hometown of every soldier, it would have taken more than five and one half hours to read all the names."

Schwartz said he brought the scroll into the synagogue's high school post-confirmation class, as well.

And more recently "I participated in an interfaith gathering marking this milestone, in which the scroll was displayed and prayers for peace were offered in English, Hebrew, Arabic and Hindi."

Despite the recent milestone and despite both the human and economic costs of the war, most Jewish groups remain silent.

"I remain deeply troubled by the fog of silence and apathy all around us," Schwartz said.

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Political Insider:  2000 Redux?:  Jewish Running Mate Speculation Abounds

When Al Gore picked Sen. Joe Lieberman for his historic national ticket in 2000, Lieberman said it showed "chutzpah."

This year, chutzpah may be contagious.

All three major presidential candidates have picked up speculation about possible Jewish running mates. In the case of Barack Obama, his recent flirting with New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg has political blogs buzzing.

Bloomberg's deputy and chief political soldier Kevin Sheekey, who for years fueled speculation of a White House bid by the mayor, is now feeding the rumor mill about a shared ticket between the Democratic frontrunner and the independent, former Democrat, former Republican mayor.

"I think the mayor is the ultimate swing voter," Sheekey told NY1's Dominic Carter recently, when asked about the ticket scenario. "He is someone who the country is looking at to find out where they will go. He is one of the true independents in the country."

Bloomberg's ability to pump a billion large into the campaign would certainly mitigate many of the minuses, as detailed by the blogger semiotica on the DailyKos: "Obama would still lack someone with strong security credentials, Bloomberg's "home state" is one of the bluest in the country, the problem of electing "two firsts", etc."

In the event the struggling New York Democrat Hillary Clinton gets to choose a running mate, one of the people on her speculative short list is Ed Rendell, former chair of the Democratic National Committee, ex-mayor of Philadelphia and current governor of Pennsylvania, which holds its important primary on April 22.

He's been one of Hillary's strongest boosters and a powerful force in her campaign in the Keystone state, where she has the momentum in polls.

Back in October, the web site Keystone Politics said Rendell has "frequently been mentioned as a possible vice-presidential candidate. That's despite repeated disavowals and claims that he'll wait until his second term expires in 2010 before considering even a Cabinet post." (Saying they don't want the job has become almost de rigueur for people who do.)

Now that another prominent governor close to the Clintons, New Mexico's Bill Richardson, has defected to the Obama camp, Rendell could be looking more attractive, although the ticket would lack geographic balance, and Rendell has no foreign policy bona fides.

Rendell is not widely known to be Jewish, and has not played up his religion in his political career.

"He doesn't back away from being Jewish, but he's never projected that as a major part of his identity," Theodore Hershberg, a professor of public policy and history at the University of Pennsylvania, told the Forward in a recent profile of Rendell, for which the governor declined to comment.

The third prospective Jewish running mate is someone whose Jewish identity is an indelible part of his public persona. Were he to pick Lieberman as his running mate, Republican John McCain would be going back to the future, giving the Connecticut senator and observant Jew another place in the books as the first American in recent history (maybe ever), let alone the first Jew, to run twice for vice president with two different party affiliations (Democrat in 2000, independent in 2008).

Despite his high profile at McCain's side, helping appeal to crossover Democrats and independents, Lieberman keeps saying he'll stay in the Senate. But it's hard to imagine him resisting some arm twisting.

"Lieberman would be a daring choice, no doubt increasing the Jewish vote for the GOP ticket and giving McCain a real shot in Connecticut," says Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's political science department. "The problem might be with the Republican base. Lieberman's views outside foreign policy are traditional Democratic."

Bloomberg, said Sabato,  "could solidify New York and the Jewish vote for Obama. If they refuse public financing, Bloomberg could help in that category substantially."

But the positions that make him popular in New York might not fare well elsewhere, Sabato notes. "His gun policy, for example, will be harmful to any chance Obama may have in Southern states."

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Political Insider: The Jewish Vote - Not as Simple as it Seems

Why is there such a big and persistent gap between the political chatter about Jewish voters and the reality, at least as it shows up in polls and in past elections?

Weeks of controversy about his anti-Israel, anti-white Chicago pastor and a relentless campaign from the right to paint the candidate as hostile to Israel were supposed to generate a strong backlash against Sen. Barack Obama.

But last week's Gallup poll (read the Jewish Week story here ) suggests support for Obama continues to grow among Jewish Democrats, despite the Jeremiah Wright controversy, although political observers say the damage could prove greater in a general election, when independent Republican groups are sure to run ads reminding voters what Wright actually said.

Now, according to Gallup, Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton are just about even in the race for Jewish votes. That's particularly significant since the Illinois senator is not as well known to the community as Clinton, who has worked for more than a decade to cultivate strong relations with Jewish opinion leaders.

What about the general election? There's already a big gap between the ever-present talk predicting a big shift to the Republicans, especially if the race pits Obama against Sen. John McCain, and the political insiders who concede McCain could do better than President George W. Bush did in 2004 but who scoff at the notion of a huge partisan shift.

Why the gap?

For one thing, commentators take their cues from a small cadre of Jewish leaders - an elite that is much more likely to focus on Israel as the preeminent political issue than the broader Jewish public, more likely to be hawkish in their foreign policy views and more likely to support Republicans.

The average Jewish voter cares about Israel, but generally doesn't put it at the top of his or her political agenda unless a candidate is seen as egregiously anti-Israel.  There's no evidence efforts by Obama's rivals to portray him that way have stuck with Jewish Democrats. Early indications suggest Obama won't do worse than most other recent Democrats in a general election, although there some wild cards - including the sensitive race factor.

The conventional wisdom also doesn't take into account the age divide that is becoming more of a political factor across the American electorate.

Are younger Jewish voters looking at the political world differently than their parents? There's little data, but anecdotal evidence suggests the trend may turn out to be a big factor in November if Obama is the nominee - possibly offsetting losses among older Jewish voters who are more likely to be swayed by the charge Obama is soft on Israel or by his offensive pastor.

The lack of data - most surveys don't break down the Jewish vote because of small sample sizes - leaves plenty of room for the partisan spinmeisters to do their thing.

The Republicans say that we're on the verge of a seismic shift in Jewish voting, and they say it enough that it becomes part of the political background noise even though such predictions in the past have proven overblown.

The Democrats say (with a kind of whistling-past-the-graveyard feel) that nothing has changed, and Jews will continue voting Democratic until the end of time, even though there is clear evidence the Jewish electorate is in ferment, like the rest of the nation.

Jewish voting patterns MAY be changing, but that change is probably more complex and more averse to simple explanations than most commentators admit  or most partisan advocates want us to believe.

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Political Insider: Jewish Web Site Hits 'National Day of Prayer'

Sometimes, evangelicals who say they support Jews walk some pretty precarious lines.

This week the Web site JewsOnFirst, which is devoted to protecting the wall of church-state separation, is calling on readers to protest National Day of Prayer events on May 1 - a nationwide celebration that politicians say is intended just to get Americans to focus more on their religious heritage and the need for prayer.

The group that sponsors the events, the National Day of Prayer Task Force, says it invites "people of all faiths to pray for the nation," and that the day "represents a Judeo-Christian expression of the nation's observance."

Sounds sort of ecumenical, doesn't it, at least if you're not Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu or some other non-Judeo-Christian faith?

But the "Judeo" part isn't exactly accurate, either, say the JewsOnFirst people. 

For one thing, the Task Force explicitly excludes ALL non-evangelical clergy from leadership of the events.

An application that event coordinators must sign states explicitly: "I commit that the (National Day of Prayer) activities I serve with will be conducted solely by Christians, while those with differing beliefs are welcome to attend."

While describing the event as "conforming to a Judeo-Christian system of values," the application requires applicants to sign a long statement of orthodox Christian belief.

Despite its connection with the conservative "Focus on the Family" ministry, politicians in both parties tend to treat the Day of Prayer as a quasi-official event,  something planners try to exploit, according to JewsOnFirst.

"The Task Force call itself 'official' on its Website and it instructs its coordinators to make their events appear to be official government functions," Jews on First says.

Read the entire JewsOnFirst report here.

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Political Insider: Grim Iraq Milestone, but Most Jewish Groups Stay Silent

This week newspapers across the country were busy noting the fact that the Iraq war has now cost 4000 American lives, not to mention the uncounted Iraqi dead.

But anti-war groups still can't get much traction in a nation that doesn't seem to regard the issue as a top priority, like philandering governors and ranting pastors.  And Jewish groups, which have something to say about just about every important issue, continue to act as if Iraq is not one of them.

This week only the Religious Action Center of Reform Judaism had anything to say about the war - which most analysts argue is a key factor in the nation's current economic woes and which many say has added new layers of danger to Israel's neighborhood.  (Read the full RAC statement here )

"After five years of this war, the world is arguably less safe, hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqis have been killed and Iraq's infrastructure remains unstable," said Mark Pelavin, the RAC's associate director. "And we are still not coming to grips with the economic costs of the war, which some now estimate to be more than $3 trillion, or $15 billion each month."

While President Bush's troop "surge" may have "sharply reduced" the number of deaths in some areas,  Pelavin said, "military progress alone will not make the changes necessary for long term success in Iraq. We believe that a call for a phased withdrawal will help keep the kind of political pressure on Iraq's leaders that can lead to these necessary changes."

And what did other Jewish groups have to say about a war that continues to affect every one of their political priorities in myriad ways?

We're still waiting.

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Political Insider: NJDC Hits Republicans With Purim Spoof on Jerusalem Embassy

In 2000, Gov. George W. Bush tried to boost his presidential bid with Jewish voters by promising to move the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem as soon as he was inaugurated.  Well, he was inaugurated - twice, now - and the embassy remains in Tel Aviv.

Ever since Congress passed the Jerusalem Embassy Act in 1995, in the heat of an earlier presidential campaign, promises to move the embassy have rolled off the lips of candidates, but there hasn't been much action.

The National Jewish Democratic Council (NJDC), anticipating a new barrage of promises by Sen. John McCain, who was in Israel this week, has responded with a bit of Purim satire.

In a spoof press release, the group conceded defeat in the Jerusalem political wars because of a unique strategy by the presumptive GOP nominee: retroactive foreign policy.

"Today, the National Jewish Democratic Council (NJDC) officially gave up trying to argue that Democrats are as good as Republicans on Israel," according to the spoof release.  "NJDC conceded defeat on this issue when presumptive GOP presidential nominee John McCain pledged that on his first day in office, he will RETROACTIVELY move the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem."

McCain, according to the wits at NJDC, announced that "It's past time to move our embassy. I recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital, so I am going to make sure that on my first day in office I will ensure that the move is ancient history."

It went on: "We totally give up here," said Ira N. Forman, NJDC Executive Director. "We were going to suggest to Senator Clinton or Obama that they permanently kasher the White House kitchen. But how do you compete with the Republicans when they can actually turn back the hands of time to help Israel?"

It was tongue in check, but it made a point NJDC is hoping to get across to Jewish voters; promises to move the embassy are easily made on the campaign trail but hard to keep in the Oval Office.

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Political Insider:  Note To John McCain: Odd Choice Of Kippot

In 20 years of covering politics, I've had the chance to see dozens of politicians take part in that awkward  ritual that comes with campaigning at Jewish religious venues: donning a kippa.

There have been some interesting choices. The knitted version emblazoned with both the American and Israeli flags is popular, as are the black suede jobs with hand painted letters spelling out a politician's name and title in Hebrew.  In 2001 Fernando Ferrer, then the Bronx borough president and a candidate for mayor, toured Crown Heights wearing a suede yarmulke emblazoned with the Yankees logo.

Just as often, at a synagogue event or a funeral, you see politicians topped off with the old standard: the disposable, black satin yarmulke found in every shul bin that inevitably unfolds pointy on top.

The conehead look of the latter may not be flattering, but at least it's honest. It means the wearers are expressing respect for another culture in a manner suggested by their hosts. Whether one wears a yarmulke, or what type they wear, says nothing about that person's character or their level of commitment to, or respect for Judaism. And yet so many non-Jews or non-observant Jews, especially when running for office, seem to think they will score extra points with the choice headgear supplied by their Jewish liaisons or consultants.

This week John McCain was photographed at the Western Wall sporting an elaborately embroidered white kippa.

According to JTA, he got it from his friend, traveling companion and speculative running mate Joe Lieberman, who is an observant Jew but rarely appears in public with a yarmulke, especially at political events.  Lieberman,  incidentally, was wearing  an almost identical kippa in the photo.

"It's impressive to see that McCain understands the Jewish world enough to know that the cardboard yarmulke [given out at the Wall] doesn't cut it," says Rabbi Joshua Hammerman,  a Jewish Week columnist who has written about the significance of kippot. "But he may be marching into treacherous waters not knowing which group he's identifying with. Every yarmulke tells a story, especially in Israel, where the style you wear indicates your political leanings."

Maybe McCain and Lieberman knew exactly what they were doing. The knitted kippa is frequently associated with the settler movement. Were McCain and Lieberman sending a message of solidarity to the settlers, many of whom are U.S. citizens who can vote in absentee ballots, and their supporters here?

Or perhaps they were just trying to show attention to detail, like wearing a geyabarra shirt in the Puerto Rico Day Parade or a green sweater on St. Patrick's Day.

In either case,  it's pointless.

I doubt any archive has a picture of Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton wearing a non-yarmulke-bin kippa, and they were surely the two most popular presidents among Jews.

That's because Jewish voters don't need a leader who tries to look or act like an Orthodox Jew at the right times.

An outwardly gentile leader in a dorky kippa who respects their sensibilities and understands their issues will do just fine.

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Political Insider: Reverend Wright: More Than a Jewish Problem for Obama

The Rev. Jeremiah Wright isn't just a Jewish problem for Sen. Barack Obama.

For months, Jewish Democrats have wondered whether controversy over Wright, the fiery and newly retired pastor of Obama's church in Chicago, might have an impact with Jewish voters in the primaries and in the November election.

Wright is an admirer of Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan; he has supported divestment against Israel and said that "racism" against Palestinians is the result of Zionism.

That may worry the campaign officials who do Jewish outreach, but the Wright problem, which exploded into the headlines last week after new video clips of the pastor's inflammatory, anti-American sermons surfaced, could have a much bigger impact.

In a nation where some vot