Political Insider: 10 Indicators for the Jewish Presidential Vote
Posted By James BesserPolitical Insider: 10 Indicators for the Jewish Presidential Vote
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Every four years, Jewish Republicans work their media contacts to generate stories about how the Jewish vote is about to change in their favor, only to be disappointed in November.
But that doesn't mean the Jewish vote can't change, or won't. Jewish Democrats obviously worry about erosion, since they spend more time and money than ever on outreach to the Jewish electorate.
Those arguments are upon us once again in 2008.
Jewish Republicans say that no matter who the Democratic nominee is, Sen. John McCain will do better than any GOP nominee since Ronald Reagan hit 39 percent in 1980.
But Jewish Democrats point out that we heard similar predictions in 2004, when the GOP touted George W. Bush as the "best pro-Israel president ever." But when the votes were counted, Bush received only 24-25 percent of the Jewish vote - better than four years earlier, but much lower than he got from other white, middle-class voter groups.
So how can we tell if the Jewish vote really is in flux this year? Here are a few signs to look for as we look at the relatively small segment of Jewish swing voters.
1. The situation in the Middle East.
If things are generally quiet in the region, it will favor the Democratic nominee - or at least defuse the Israel issue somewhat as a draw for the GOP.
But if terrorism worsens, rocket attacks increase or the simmering conflict with Hezbollah or Hamas turns into open warfare, McCain could get a boost. Jewish voters tend to get more militant about pro-Israel issues when Israel seems more threatened than usual; when things are going okay, most focus on domestic issues, where the Democrats have a big edge.
2. Will the Democrats play to the center?
To win, the Democratic nominee must run a strongly centrist campaign and not play to the Democratic left. Jewish voters remain strongly Democratic and generally liberal, but they tend to react in fear if a candidate seems too cozy with the anti-Israel left.
Both Democratic contenders seem to be hewing to the center. But will they continue? How will they react to GOP efforts to portray them as secret leftists?
3. Will the Republicans play to the center?
The conventional wisdom is that Republican candidates do best running to the right in the primaries and steering back to the center in the general election.
But John McCain can't afford to ignore a restive religious right that has been very cool to his candidacy. If millions of Christian conservatives stay home in November, he could face disaster.
If McCain keeps religious right leaders at arm's length, his Jewish numbers could go up; if he makes that faction a top target because he is fearful they and their supporters will sit out the election, his Jewish gains could be minimal to nonexistent.
4. Iraq.
McCain will argue that "winning" in Iraq is vital for Israel's security interests, but it's hard to see how the average Jewish voter -opposed to current Iraq policy - will go for that.
The more the war figures as a major campaign issue, and the more McCain defends Bush administration policy, the worse he is likely to do with Jewish voters who believe the war was a mistake in the first place.
5. Iran
All the candidates say we can't afford to let Iran go nuclear, echoing Jewish public opinion, but it's very unclear how the issue is likely to affect Jewish voting.
If Obama is the nominee, the Republicans will argue that his call for diplomacy is tantamount to appeasement. If the Iranian threat seems more dire in November, that could work to McCain's advantage with Jewish swing voters.
But banging away on Iran could backfire if McCain's militancy persuades voters that he is likely to launch a new military campaign.
That would cheer Jewish neo-conservatives. But they're not likely to vote for a Democrat, anyway; the average Jewish voter is unlikely to be attracted by a Republican nominee who seems eager to commit to a third war.
6. The economy.
A sour economy always hurts the party that controls the White House. But this year there is also public unhappiness with the Democratic Congress' response.
Jews are like other voters: heavily influenced by pocketbook issues.
If American pocketbooks seem significantly more endangered when November rolls around, McCain's claims of strong national security credentials may seem a lot less important to Jewish voters than his self-proclaimed lack of expertise in economics and worries he would continue the economic policies of the Bush administration.
An improvement in the economy could make it easier for McCain to keep the focus where he wants it with Jewish voters: on terrorism and Israel's security.
7. Judges
Liberal Jewish groups say that eight years of Republican rule have transformed the federal judiciary in a way that will compromise church-state separation, endanger civil and abortion rights and generally undercut the Jewish domestic agenda.
Sen. McCain has promised to appoint Supreme Court Justices in the mold of Antonin Scalia won't be a plus with most Jewish voters. If the Democrats aggressively and effectively exploit that issue, and if McCain talks up his pledge to the party's conservative wing, it could have an impact in keeping Jewish swing voters on the Democratic side of the ledger.
That's another reason the Republicans want to keep Jews focused on Israel and terrorism; the more that happens, the more domstic issues like the changing federal judiciary get lost in the shuffle.
8. Jeremiah Wright
Sen. Obama's preacher will provide a fat -- and lucrative -- target for GOP ad agencies; how well Obama responds, if he is the nominee, could have a significant impact on Jewish voting.
The Republicans will demand he repeatedly damn his former spiritual mentor, and not just reject his views, but doing that could prove awkward in an election in which he will need a huge African American turnout to win.
Any sign Obama is equivocating in the face of repeated attacks could tip some Jewish swing voters over to the Republicans.
9. John Hagee
Sen. McCain now says he may have made a mistake in cozying up to the San Antonio megachurch preacher and Christian Zionist leader who has infuriated Catholics and gays. But he desperately needs the religious right constituency that Hagee influences, so he can't go too far in his rejection.
Pro-Israel leaders increasingly accept Hagee, but his not-one-inch views about Mideast peace efforts, his call for preemptive war with Iran and his apocalyptic rhetoric are unlikely to sell with most Jewish voters. The more Hagee figures into the McCain campaign, the harder it will be for the presumptive nominee to score above President Bush's 2004 tally with Jewish voters; if Hagee fades from view by November, McCain will be in a better position with Jewish voters.
Jewish Democrats will try their best to highlight Hagee's past writings and his controversial statements, but it will be harder because the preacher has been koshered by major pro-Israel leaders.
10. Race
Jews like to talk about how the black-Jewish alliance helped create the civil rights revolution of the 1960s, but there is also a palpable uneasiness about a black community that, according to some, is a primary source of anti-Semitism in this country and whose leaders seem hostile to Israel.
If Obama is the nominee, the GOP will do its best to connect him to black extremists such as Louis Farrakhan; his responses will be scrutinized carefully by some nervous Jewish swing voters.
But if the Republicans or their friends in independent political groups play the race card too blatantly, it could hurt McCain with Jewish voters who remain committed to the basic precepts of the civil rights movement.