Posted By James Besser
Political Insider: Safe Bets for the New Year / James Besser in Washington
You thought 2007 was a wild ride? Wait until 2008, which dawns in the middle of a wide-open presidential race and even more than the usual assortment of world crises.
There's nothing as risky as New Years predictions, but here are a handful of safe bets for the next twelve months.
- Presidential pundits and prognosticators will be proven wrong more than in most recent elections. Remember the "who's Huckabee" theme? The "Hillary has the nomination sewn up" idea? Remember the predictions Al Gore and Newt Gingrich would jump in?
The 2008 presidential contest is the most volatile and unpredictable in many years. The fight between three top Democratic contenders is narrowing as the primaries draw near; Republican voters seem deeply divided, with no clear favorite emerging.
Voters are in a sour, distrustful mood, and dramatic world events could explode in the middle of the campaigns. Don't bet the rent money on any outcome.
- Ron Paul will have a bigger impact than most pundits believe.
Sure, he won't win any primaries, but his blend of anti-war activism, fierce isolationism and anti-government libertarianism is proving surprisingly attractive to a new cohort of young voters. Paul has tapped the "Netroots like none of his GOP rivals; he has drawn surprising support from anti-war factions on the far left as well as far right.
A stronger-than-expected showing in some primaries, coupled to a GOP loss in November, could ignite a huge battle for control of the Republican Party, with Paul forces playing a growing role by calling on the party to return to its ideological roots.
- Jewish voters will vote overwhelmingly Democratic no matter who the nominees are.
But the vote could be significantly less overwhelming - say 70 percent Democratic instead of 80 - if former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Sen. John McCain is the nominee, and under some scenarios that could make a significant difference in November.
But either of those Republican candidates could cut into their Jewish totals if they continue veering to the right on domestic issues.
The Republicans will continue their "all Israel, all the time" strategy among Jewish voters; Democratic candidates will continue trying to quickly dispose of the Israel issue by touting their support and then moving on to domestic issues, where they have a big advantage.
- Despite protests from groups such as the Anti-Defamation League, religion will continue to be a major factor in this year's elections, for the simple reason that candidates in both parties believe appeals to faith work. Some pundits will predict a backlash from voters tired of the mixing of religion and politics - but the candidates won't agree.
--Christian Zionist influence will continue to grow and continue to generate controversy in both the Jewish and Christian spheres.
Groups like Christians United for Israel (CUFI) are raising boatloads of money; the idea that support for Israel is a Biblical requirement seems to be spreading as a core tenet of the evangelical movement.
If Israel and the Palestinians move toward the goal of Palestinian statehood by the end of the year, CUFI will become even more active as it unites with right-of-center Jewish groups to oppose an agreement.
At the same time, the top Christian Zionist leader, Pastor John Hagee, is increasingly embroiled in theological and social controversy. Many evangelicals believe his new book, "In Defense of Israel," abandons traditional evangelical teaching on the Christian Messiah. And Hagee is under mounting attack for what some say are his anti-Catholic views.
Meanwhile, some Jewish groups will continue to express quiet concern that the Christian Zionists are gaining a growing stake in the whole Zionist enterprise by virtue of their pro-Israel philanthropy.
- The debate over the power of the pro-Israel lobby will continue to churn in far-right and far-left circles and intellectual journals - and have almost no impact on the electoral process.
- Israel and the Palestinians won't succeed in creating a Palestinian state by the end of 2008. Both sides have weak, politically beset leaders; armies of terrorists are eager to derail the process with bombs and guns; the Bush administration seems deeply divided on how hard to push the process.
The old bromide is that peace won't come until all parties want it bad enough to take big chances; there are few indications that critical mass is near.
- International efforts to block Iran's nuclear weapons quest will continue to erode.
U.S. intelligence officials have concluded Iran gave up its nuclear program several years ago; an administration that claims it's still a threat lacks international credibility. Neither the American electorate nor U.S. allies want yet another war.
Israel officials will leak more chatter about doing the military job themselves - but ultimately won't because of the huge risks and logistical difficulties. In the end, Israel will start talking more about deterrence once Iran does go nuclear - not because it wants to but because it has to.
- Iraq: violence will go up and down, political squabbling will continue in Washington without any real resolution - and the administration will look for some modest sign of progress so it can announce a troop drawdown before the November elections.