Posted By James Besser
Political Insider: Giuliani Sinking in New York? Polls Show Drop, Experts Question Strategy
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The stakes in Rudy Giuliani's big Florida gamble keep rising as the Republican presidential contender faces growing questions about his controversial primary strategy.
And that strategy may be affecting the onetime frontrunner's standing in New York, where some polls now show Giuliani trailing on his home turf.
His decision to forgo the early primaries, let his competitors beat each other into insensibility and then clean up in Florida was "either a strategy of utter madness or utter brilliance," said American University historian Allan J. Lichtman, who studies the presidency. "And right now it's looking like utter madness."
The problem, Lichtman said: by removing himself from the national spotlight as his GOP rivals fight one of the most compelling primary battles in recent memory, the former mayor has undercut his stature as a serious candidate.
The re-emergence of Sen. John McCain as a GOP frontrunner - appealing to the same national security hawks as Rudy - has added to Giuliani's seeming irrelevance, some Jewish Republicans argued this week.
And that could also translate into big trouble on his home turf when New York Republicans go to the polls on February 5 - Super Tuesday - although experts say a big Giuliani win in the too-close-to-call Florida contest next Tuesday could revive his campaign.
A WNBC/Marist poll shows Giuliani now trailing McCain in New York. According to the survey, 34 percent of registered Republicans now support McCain, with Giuliani a distant second at 23 percent.
More ominous for the Giuliani campaign: 46 percent of registered Republicans surveyed see McCain as the candidate with the best chance of keeping the White House in Republican hands; only 15 percent see Giuliani as the most electable.
And with GOP anxieties growing about their prospects in this volatile election year, that factor could be a huge factor for committed Republicans in New York as well as other Super Tuesday states.
Another poll by the Siena College Research Institute showed Giuliani running 12 points behind McCain in the state, although analysts caution that the small sample size makes the survey less reliable.
Giuliani's strategy "has made him a cipher in the campaign," said Douglas Muzzio, a professor of public policy at Baruch College/CUNY. "So the only commentary about him is about how he's run behind Ron Paul in the early primaries. He's dropped out of the air totally, not just off the radar screen."
It is McCain, whose fortunes were dramatically revived with his New Hampshire win earlier in the month, who is generating the most media buzz, Muzzio said - a buzz that has a powerful impact on the electorate.
Muzzio said Giuliani also has big problems with Republican Party activists in New York.
"They don't love him; they still haven't forgiven him for endorsing Mario Cuomo in 1994," he said.