Political Insider:   Is Joe Reading The Writing On The Wall?

I last blogged about the possibility of Joe Lieberman getting a second shot at vice president, a prospect he insists he's not pursuing, though his campaigning for presumptive Republican nominee John McCain suggests otherwise.

A new poll commissioned by the Democratic blog DailyKos (read it here )suggests Lieberman, who lost the Democratic nomination in 2006 to Ned Lamont, has reason to look at his options.

In a retake of Research 2000's 2007 poll, the group found Lieberman slipping in popularity among most Connecticut voters.

Lamont, the cable company founder who challenged Lieberman largely because of the senator's support for the Iraq war, would get a whopping 74 percent of Democrats' votes in a new matchup against Lieberman, should he seek re-election on that ballot, according to the poll of 600 likely voters between  March 31 and April 2. That's up slightly from 72 percent last year, while within the poll's four percent margin of error.

Lieberman's support among Democrats, however, slipped from 25 percent last year to 19 percent this year. His support among all voters is at 37 percent, statistically the same as last year's 40 percent.

Independent voters, who put Lieberman back on Capitol Hill, are also deserting him, favoring Lamont by a margin of 53-36 percent, statistically the same as last year's 49-38 results.

Republicans like Lieberman best, though, choosing him over both Lamont and the 2006 GOP nominee, Alan Schlesinger. That result is the only one that shows Lieberman gaining popularity, from 69 percent to 74 percent, while Lamont gets a paltry four percent (down from seven) and Schlesinger only 19 (down from 24).

That Republican appeal could bolster his credentials as a possible McCain running mate even as it damages him among liberals, who argued in 2006 that he was too close to President Bush on foreign policy and national security matters.

But the poll also suggests Lieberman would not necessarily help McCain win Connecticut. A majority of respondents in nearly all age or party groups said the selection would not affect their chances of voting for McCain. The exception is among Republicans, and those voters were about evenly divided between those more likely to vote for McCain (43 percent) and no effect (45 percent) with only 12 percent saying they were less likely to support the ticket.

Lieberman has insisted his plan is to stay in the Senate. And, in fairness to the gentleman from the Nutmeg State, few voters are actually focused this far in advance on an election more than four years off that may or may not include the same players. Were Lamont  not to run, for example, the whole calculus would change.

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