Posted By James Besser
The Jerusalem Game / James Besser in Washington
In 2000, then-Gov. George W. Bush went before Jewish groups and promised to start moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem as soon as he was elected, and attacked his opponent – former Vice President Al Gore – for the Clinton administration’s position that the issue should be decided only after final status negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.
But once in office, Bush did exactly what his Democratic predecessor did: he used the waiver provisions of the 1995 Jerusalem Embassy Act to put off the move, and has repeated that waiver every six months since then.
Now, according to a Jewish Week Political Insider item this week, surrogates for three of the top Republican 2008 presidential contenders -- Sen. John McCain, former Gov. Mitt Romney and former mayor Rudy Giuliani - say their champions will move the embassy as soon as they are elected.
Even many vocal supporters of moving the embassy admit the issue is more about politics than policy; the realities of Mideast diplomacy are strangely impervious to casual campaign promises.
The original embassy statute was sponsored by then-Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kans.), who was planning to run for president in 1996 – and needed a good issue to help him quickly establish pro-Israel credentials. Dole announced the legislation to great fanfare at the 1995 AIPAC policy conference as his campaign was gearing up.
The issue was trotted out again in 2000, when Bush forces lashed out at President Bill Clinton for invoking the law’s waiver provisions. That effort was particularly energetic in Florida, where the Republicans ran ads touting the GOP nominee’s Jerusalem stand.
And what was the reaction of Jewish Republicans when Bush started his own string of waivers? Not a peep, suggesting the issue has utility only in election years, and only when it can be used to bash an opponent.
Now, with Bush getting ready to ride off into the sunset, the issue is back.
The Democrats are taking a faith based approach to the Jerusalem embassy question; mostly they are praying it doesn’t get asked. Politically, they have nothing to gain from wading into the fray, since the Jewish voters most likely to care about forcing the embassy move are those already inclined to vote Republican.
Republicans are assuming Jewish voters have no memory; most Democrats don’t have the nerve to admit they support the Republican president because they’re scared of getting bashed by … the Republicans.
Mainstream Jewish and pro-Israel groups face a similar problem.
Most believe either that forcing the embassy move now would complicate U.S. peace efforts, or that fighting the waivers is a losing proposition, so why squander resources?
But no Jewish leader wants to get on the wrong side of the Jerusalem-as-eternal-and-undivided-capital-of-Israel doctrine. So they equivocate, saying the embassy should be moved, but getting all vague when asked about when.
That curious dance is likely to continue after next year’s election no matter who is elected.