Political Insider: The Jewish Vote - Not as Simple as it Seems
Posted By James BesserPolitical Insider: The Jewish Vote - Not as Simple as it Seems
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Why is there such a big and persistent gap between the political chatter about Jewish voters and the reality, at least as it shows up in polls and in past elections?
Weeks of controversy about his anti-Israel, anti-white Chicago pastor and a relentless campaign from the right to paint the candidate as hostile to Israel were supposed to generate a strong backlash against Sen. Barack Obama.
But last week's Gallup poll (read the Jewish Week story here ) suggests support for Obama continues to grow among Jewish Democrats, despite the Jeremiah Wright controversy, although political observers say the damage could prove greater in a general election, when independent Republican groups are sure to run ads reminding voters what Wright actually said.
Now, according to Gallup, Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton are just about even in the race for Jewish votes. That's particularly significant since the Illinois senator is not as well known to the community as Clinton, who has worked for more than a decade to cultivate strong relations with Jewish opinion leaders.
What about the general election? There's already a big gap between the ever-present talk predicting a big shift to the Republicans, especially if the race pits Obama against Sen. John McCain, and the political insiders who concede McCain could do better than President George W. Bush did in 2004 but who scoff at the notion of a huge partisan shift.
Why the gap?
For one thing, commentators take their cues from a small cadre of Jewish leaders - an elite that is much more likely to focus on Israel as the preeminent political issue than the broader Jewish public, more likely to be hawkish in their foreign policy views and more likely to support Republicans.
The average Jewish voter cares about Israel, but generally doesn't put it at the top of his or her political agenda unless a candidate is seen as egregiously anti-Israel. There's no evidence efforts by Obama's rivals to portray him that way have stuck with Jewish Democrats. Early indications suggest Obama won't do worse than most other recent Democrats in a general election, although there some wild cards - including the sensitive race factor.
The conventional wisdom also doesn't take into account the age divide that is becoming more of a political factor across the American electorate.
Are younger Jewish voters looking at the political world differently than their parents? There's little data, but anecdotal evidence suggests the trend may turn out to be a big factor in November if Obama is the nominee - possibly offsetting losses among older Jewish voters who are more likely to be swayed by the charge Obama is soft on Israel or by his offensive pastor.
The lack of data - most surveys don't break down the Jewish vote because of small sample sizes - leaves plenty of room for the partisan spinmeisters to do their thing.
The Republicans say that we're on the verge of a seismic shift in Jewish voting, and they say it enough that it becomes part of the political background noise even though such predictions in the past have proven overblown.
The Democrats say (with a kind of whistling-past-the-graveyard feel) that nothing has changed, and Jews will continue voting Democratic until the end of time, even though there is clear evidence the Jewish electorate is in ferment, like the rest of the nation.
Jewish voting patterns MAY be changing, but that change is probably more complex and more averse to simple explanations than most commentators admit or most partisan advocates want us to believe.