Political Insider: Obama's Blue Collar Blues
Posted By James BesserPolitical Insider: Obama's Blue Collar Blues
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This week's Jewish Week story on Sen. Barak Obama's problems resulting from his long association with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright (read it here) naturally put a Jewish spin on things.
There's little question Wright's reemergence on the national stage, his continued defense of Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan and his harsh rhetoric about America are upsetting even some staunch Jewish Democrats.
But as the story pointed out, Obama faces a much bigger Wright problem: a backlash from white working class voters, the segment where his support among Democratic voters is weakest.
After the story was published a new Pew Research poll (read it here ) offered stark confirmation of that point.
According to Pew, "Obama has lost ground among whites -- especially white working-class voters -- who now prefer Clinton by an even larger margin than they did in late March."
Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead among white voters who never went to college has increased from 10 points in March to 40 points now; her lead among white Democrats earning less than $50,000 a year jumped from 2 to 24 points, the research group noted.
That may not be enough to deny the Illinois lawmaker the Democratic nomination, but it is a troubling sign for the Democrats in a general election race in which race and class are certain to play an even bigger role than they did in the primaries.
But if Clinton does manage to wrest the nomination from Obama, analysts say the party faces the potential of an African American backlash. Even a modest move by black voters to sit out the November election could be devastating for the Democrats.
"If Hillary Clinton wins the nomination, the Democrats go down the tubes," said Johns Hopkins political scientist Benjamin Ginsberg. "Black Democrats will see this as betrayal; if their turnout drops by even 20 percent, the Democrats are in very deep trouble."
No doubt the Wright backlash is being driven to a considerable extent by Obama's political opponents in both parties and by the endless media quest for new and sensational stories.
But the results are real -- and a worrisome hint of what's to come when the Republican campaign machine really gets in gear in the fall.
The best strategy for Obama, according to Ginsberg: accept the fact that he will continue to "bleed" from the Wright wound, and look for "transfusions" by changing the subject to issues such as the sagging economy.
That could also help shore up support in the Jewish electorate, where economic angst is becoming a bigger factor in this year's political races, several analysts said this week.