Posted By James Besser
The Ho-Hum Summit / James Besser in Washington
A front page story in this week’s Jewish Week looks at the upcoming Annapolis summit, the Bush administration’s downsized expectations for the meeting and the general murkiness surrounding who will be there and what will be discussed.
In numerous interviews, several things stood out that reinforce the conclusion that in the Jewish world, skepticism and doubt are the order of the day
Mainstream Jewish leaders, almost to a person, say they don’t expect much from the conference. Some are publicly praising Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for her determination to make Annapolis work but privately scratching their heads over the whole idea of holding a high-profile, high-risk conference at this juncture.
And there is a palpable fear that the conference will fail – and Israel will be blamed, or new Palestinian violence will break out, or both.
Maybe Bush administration strategists know something they they’re not telling that might point to a better likelihood of success, some Jewish leaders say – but they doubt it.
The Jewish right may be the only segment of the Jewish community truly galvanized by Annapolis. Groups like the Orthodox Union (see their special Jerusalem Web site here ) and the National Council of Young Israel have been sounding the alarms about a possible compromise on Jerusalem, but talking to some of the leaders of the new “Our Jerusalem” coalition, it’s hard to believe they really think the talks will advance enough to get negotiators anywhere near critical final status issues such as Jerusalem.
So why the intense focus on Annapolis by the right? Is it because they think the conference will succeed – or because they want to lay down markers for future peace efforts, and especially to establish the precedent that American Jews should have a say in what Israel does with Jerusalem?
And is it just about Jerusalem, or about generating opposition to any new territorial concessions?
The left is harder to read as the conference approaches.
Groups like Americans for Peace Now and the Israel Policy Forum are going through the motions of supporting Annapolis, but it seems like their hearts aren’t in it.
Few believe President Bush is really interested in committing the kind of resources it will take to make Annapolis a turning point in Israel-Palestinian relations, or that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas are ready to take the huge political risks any real progress will require.
At the same time, the doves can’t afford to be seen as cool to the only peace game in town. And they fear the consequences of a failed conference – which could include renewed violence and even deeper divisions over negotiating with the Palestinians.
There are whiffs of hope that the administration might have some tricks up its sleeve – and deep unease that maybe it doesn’t, and that a failed Annapolis summit may just make matters worse.